Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94a8…f1c4 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-7%) realized −$40 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$1
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.0% -12.3% 71% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -13.3% -21.6% 60% 30% -19.7%
≤90d 10 -13.3% -21.6% 60% 30% -19.7%
all 10 -13.3% -21.6% 60% 30% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 30% -19.7%
10% -29.1% 10% -27.4%
15% -35.9% 10% -34.4%
20% -42.2% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? No 93¢ 97¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $71 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $67 +$32 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $41 +$6 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$11 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$37 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $42 −$5 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $76 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $71 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $41 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 52¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.21 · official $104.21 (match) · 28 history records