Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ac…2057 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$2
other 27% −$12
sports 13% +$34
crypto 10% −$2
politics 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 5% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -7.8%
10% -21.0% 5% -16.6%
15% -28.7% 5% -24.7%
20% -35.7% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage486d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $74 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $1 $0 -5%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $36 $0 +0%
Human case of new COVID disease before April? Mar 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 12 $46 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $45 +$1 +2%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille end in a draw? Mar 05 $8 +$28 +335%
Bryant vs. Vermont Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $33 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 32h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $13 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $39 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $24 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $19 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $37 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.70 · official $37.62 (match) · 147 history records