Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x94ac…f02e sports 166 markets active 3d ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-4%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%101W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% $0
sports 40% −$79
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 67% -8.1%
≤30d 149 +6.5% -3.6% 64% 64% -8.8%
≤90d 149 +6.5% -3.6% 64% 64% -8.8%
all 166 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 61% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 61% -13.5%
10% -17.1% 58% -21.7%
15% -25.1% 51% -29.3%
20% -32.5% 33% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses101 / 65
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage203d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$7 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$4 +238%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 +$8 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $2 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $4 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $4 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 40¢ $1 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 40¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $7 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 59¢ $3 3d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 66¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records