Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94ad…defe other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+14%) realized +$13 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$65
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$133
sports 2% −$12
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -55.9% -60.1% 33% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 35 -27.9% -34.7% 31% 29% -2.4%
≤90d 35 -27.9% -34.7% 31% 29% -2.4%
all 35 -27.9% -34.7% 31% 29% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 29% -2.4%
10% -41.0% 23% -11.7%
15% -46.7% 23% -20.3%
20% -51.9% 20% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$9 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $20 $99 +$79 (+398%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $44 +$8 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $67 +$34 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$34 -72%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $37 +$63 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $36 −$34 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3 +$10 +319%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $22 +$28 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 +$61 +312%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$7 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 +$18 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $45 −$34 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 27h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.60 · official $99.50 (match) · 77 history records