Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ad…b23e other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2
tech 32% −$5
crypto 21% +$1
economics 4% −$2
politics 3% +$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage232d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 24 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $8 +$2 +27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $5 $0 -7%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $249 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Jan 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 09 $374 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Dec 19 $1 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 19 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Dec 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 22 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 13 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $189 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $189 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $200 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $200 29h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $180 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $200 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $200 24d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 24d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 48d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 48d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 48d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 77d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 77d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $100 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.12 · official $202.12 (match) · 181 history records