Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94b9…3213 sports 121 markets active 8h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-6%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%43W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$6
other 29% −$22
weather 14% −$10
crypto 4% +$2
world 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -15.6% -23.7% 30% 27% -21.2%
≤30d 108 -17.0% -24.9% 36% 30% -16.5%
≤90d 121 -19.5% -27.2% 36% 30% -14.5%
all 121 -19.5% -27.2% 36% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 30% -14.5%
10% -34.2% 26% -22.7%
15% -40.5% 21% -30.2%
20% -46.4% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses43 / 78
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage31d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +188%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$18 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +120%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +43%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3 +$4 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -72%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 41h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 41h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records