Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x94bb…c320
world · 412 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,409 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,601 · open −$398
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,922
Realized+$1,601
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses160 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions198
Markets (closed)301 / 412
History coverage21d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day153.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 198 History 301 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$456
7 days+$1,214
14 days+$1,580
30 days+$1,601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $270 $278 +$8 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 97¢ $231 $237 +$6 (+3%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 80¢ 74¢ $237 $217 −$20 (-9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $199 $212 +$13 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $175 $179 +$4 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 82¢ 86¢ $119 $125 +$6 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 79¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 67¢ 90¢ $90 $122 +$32 (+36%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 48¢ 61¢ $73 $92 +$19 (+26%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $91 $88 −$4 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 91¢ 91¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 81¢ $73 $77 +$4 (+5%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 76¢ 83¢ $69 $76 +$7 (+10%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ 77¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+16%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 70¢ 69¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 71¢ 96¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 18¢ 83¢ $14 $67 +$52 (+361%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 66¢ 88¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $52 $66 +$14 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $148 +$16 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $60 −$35 -58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $71 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,072 +$60 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $60 −$49 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,585 +$64 +4%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,628 +$98 +4%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $15 +$3 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $93 −$23 -25%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $58 +$222 +382%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $101 −$41 -40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $72 +$47 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +7%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $60 +$10 +16%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $197 −$31 -16%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 12 $121 +$5 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $41 +$24 +58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $142 +$20 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $63 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $326 +$40 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $105 +$33 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $63 +$8 +13%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $158 +$171 +108%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $57 −$28 -48%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$6 -41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $264 +$59 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $202 −$4 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$12 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $194 +$30 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $140 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$765
politics 21% +$1,985
other 10% −$404
sports 6% −$329
finance 6% −$665
tech 1% −$94
culture 1% −$118
crypto 0% +$61
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 90¢ $8 9m
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 91¢ $10 11m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 19m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 19m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 24m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $16 24m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 25m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 9¢ $24 58m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 78¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $292 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 55¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 28% -3.1%
≤30d 301 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 33% -5.0%
≤90d 301 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 33% -5.0%
all 301 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 33% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover153.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 33% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 22% -14.1%
15% -25.7% 17% -22.4%
20% -33.0% 13% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,921.74 · official $6,925.36 (match) · 3500 history records