Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bd…e289 crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$489 (+11%) realized +$506 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -0.0%
≤30d 40 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -0.0%
≤90d 40 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -0.0%
all 40 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 50% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 50% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 40% -9.6%
15% -30.3% 25% -18.3%
20% -37.1% 18% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$506
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 51¢ 16¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $228 +$52 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$45 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $309 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $257 +$164 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $433 −$109 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $231 −$49 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $233 −$34 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $211 +$274 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $287 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $54 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.84 · official $26.23 · 140 history records