Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bf…e5d8 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$10
other 18% −$22
politics 5% −$2
finance 4% $0
sports 4% +$12
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 31 -2.3% -11.6% 42% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 47 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 2% -8.9%
all 52 -1.9% -11.2% 35% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage491d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $132 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $110 +$10 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $132 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $83 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $8 −$3 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $8 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $57 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $43 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 31 $48 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 28 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $4 $0 -5%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 05 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $52 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $53 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $55 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $52 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $51 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.97 · official $48.97 (match) · 225 history records