Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94c0…b61c crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$752 (-7%) realized −$712 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%149W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day64.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,052
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -18.7%
≤30d 291 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -18.7%
≤90d 291 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -18.7%
all 291 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 51% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 51% -26.5%
15% -29.8% 51% -33.6%
20% -36.7% 51% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$34 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$712
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses149 / 142
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day64.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Up 60¢ 38¢ $52 $34 −$19 (-36%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Up 58¢ 46¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $91 −$25 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $219 +$124 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $75 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $18 −$17 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$32 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$14 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$12 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$11 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$14 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$8 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$11 +87%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $18 +$13 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$16 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$157 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$2 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $44 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $91 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $66 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $75 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $32 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.48 · official $39.48 (match) · 647 history records