Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94c4…45ce other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$8
world 22% +$8
politics 13% −$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.6% -2.7% 100% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 3 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 3 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 33% -4.7%
all 31 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 10% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 10% -7.5%
10% -15.2% 3% -16.3%
15% -23.4% 3% -24.4%
20% -30.9% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.51 per $1 lost it wins $11.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage369d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 10 $20 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Aug 10 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Jul 03 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 02 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $7 +$5 +77%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 21 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $57 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $58 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $51 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $46 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $51 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $50 44h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $19 317d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $19 317d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $19 317d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $19 317d
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $19 318d
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $20 318d
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? SELL No 98¢ $20 318d
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? BUY No 99¢ $20 318d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 95¢ $16 318d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 318d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 318d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 318d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 318d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 318d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.17 · official $57.02 (match) · 97 history records