Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94c4…7a29 crypto 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,661 (-11%) realized −$2,661 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%51W / 66L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$108
14 days−$528
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1,373
crypto 32% −$1,651
sports 6% +$258
finance 6% −$22
other 3% −$122
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 50% -40.2%
≤30d 60 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 33% -20.6%
≤90d 94 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 29% -19.5%
all 117 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 27% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 27% -20.8%
10% -30.4% 16% -28.4%
15% -37.1% 14% -35.3%
20% -43.3% 12% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$71 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,661
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses51 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage115d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $115 +$40 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $203 −$148 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$63 +96%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$21 -68%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $96 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 +$21 +31%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$17 -54%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$30 -52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$58 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $27 −$21 -76%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$23 -47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $128 −$127 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$32 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $179 −$101 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $228 +$12 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$46 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $153 +$24 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$27 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$26 -51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$28 -28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $176 +$127 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $155 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $115 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $129 9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 80¢ $96 10d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 79¢ $96 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $87 10d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 10d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 11d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 11d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 12d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 6¢ $6 12d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $27 12d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 12d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records