Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94c8…0cd7 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$443 (-4%) realized −$443 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$767per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$448
crypto 10% +$1
other 9% +$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.2% 92% 17% -17.6%
all 15 +2.9% -6.9% 93% 20% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 20% -12.8%
10% -15.8% 13% -21.2%
15% -24.0% 13% -28.8%
20% -31.4% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$1,280 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$767
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $184 +$135 +73%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 15 $182 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1,292 −$1,280 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Apr 21 $1,217 +$75 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $1,216 +$1 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $1,062 +$154 +14%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $1,061 +$1 +0%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $978 +$83 +8%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $974 +$5 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of March? Apr 01 $971 +$2 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $969 +$377 +39%
Will LYON win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $967 +$3 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 17 $966 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $60 30d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $184 35d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $182 47d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 69¢ $1,292 68d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 94¢ $1,217 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,216 82d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY G2 Esports 87¢ $1,062 85d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 100¢ $1,061 85d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 92¢ $978 86d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Celtics 100¢ $974 87d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $971 96d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $969 98d
Will LYON win First Stand 2026? BUY No 100¢ $967 101d
Trail Blazers vs. Nets BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $966 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.94 · official $117.94 (match) · 30 history records