trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 29% | 6% | -12.6% |
| all | 28 | +7.7% | -2.6% | 46% | 11% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.6% | 11% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -11.9% | 7% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -20.4% | 7% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -28.2% | 4% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 65¢ | 66¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 29¢ | 42¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+45%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $71 | −$2 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $46 | −$19 | -40% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 22 | $26 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 21 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 21 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 20 | $19 | +$1 | +7% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 19 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | Apr 26 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 24 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? | Apr 23 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 23 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 20 | $7 | $0 | +6% |
| San José State vs. Colorado State | Mar 04 | $9 | −$5 | -63% |
| Roma vs. FC Porto | Mar 03 | $5 | +$2 | +45% |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State | Mar 03 | $2 | +$7 | +335% |