trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $166,210 | $169,065 | +$2,855 (+2%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $11 | $0 | −$11 (-100%) |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers | Guangdong Southern Tigers | 28¢ | 0¢ | $737 | $0 | −$737 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $807 | +$1,649 | +204% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $251 | +$498 | +198% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 16 | $287 | +$645 | +225% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $99,080 | +$404 | +0% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $21,501 | +$1,930 | +9% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 13 | $13,735 | +$1,009 | +7% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 08 | $11,241 | +$1,174 | +10% |
| Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers | May 06 | $745 | −$737 | -99% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | May 06 | $991 | +$1,999 | +202% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 01 | $159,765 | +$2,447 | +2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 28 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Apr 10 | $5,036 | +$10 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Apr 05 | $152,681 | +$7,085 | +5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 30 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Mar 19 | $2,859 | −$2,859 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 19 | $1,717,644 | +$21,606 | +1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 17 | $150,995 | +$1,686 | +1% |
| Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Mar 06 | $1,293 | +$110 | +8% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $2,919 | +$94 | +3% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $272,705 | +$6,604 | +2% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 04 | $2,014,017 | +$2,703 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Feb 03 | $221,196 | +$7,814 | +4% |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $14,737 | +$219,591 | +1490% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $201,308 | +$588,897 | +292% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting | Jan 23 | $20,515 | +$10,576 | +52% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me | Jan 23 | $5,825 | +$7 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +209.1% | +179.7% | 100% | 100% | +178.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 76% | 24% | -8.0% |
| all | 26 | +89.1% | +71.1% | 85% | 27% | +6.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +71.1% | 27% | +6.0% |
| 10% | +54.7% | 27% | -4.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +39.8% | 27% | -13.4% |
| 20% | +26.1% | 27% | -21.9% |