Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d2…ce9d world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$7
other 18% −$2
politics 2% $0
weather 2% +$3
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$6
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.0% -12.2% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -3.2% -12.5% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 6% -8.4%
all 33 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -25.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage476d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -13%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $63 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $35 −$7 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $41 +$10 +23%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 28 $6 −$2 -37%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $49 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $15 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $55 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $54 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $53 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $53 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $53 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $53 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $27 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 79¢ $35 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.55 · official $49.55 (match) · 102 history records