Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94d2…2d33 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
crypto 16% +$3
sports 12% $0
politics 12% +$1
world 11% +$1
finance 4% +$6
economics 3% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.5% +8.2% 100% 100% +8.2%
≤30d 5 +9.2% -1.2% 80% 40% -3.1%
≤90d 20 +10.5% -0.0% 85% 40% +1.9%
all 34 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 26% -6.5%
10% -19.0% 21% -15.4%
15% -26.8% 6% -23.6%
20% -34.0% 6% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)34 / 56
History coverage140d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 80¢ 77¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $11 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $18 +$4 +23%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 05 $10 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $6 +$3 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 02 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 02 $12 +$1 +10%
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $4 +$2 +52%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $3 −$2 -94%
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 21 $20 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Mar 06 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 27 $6 +$2 +25%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 21? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $6 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 17 $13 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 13 $6 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 12 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $7 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $16 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $11 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 91¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $20 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $21 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $14 10d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $14 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.41 · official $53.23 · 192 history records