Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d4…65a6 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate79%46W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day152.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 62% -10.0%
≤30d 58 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 62% -10.0%
≤90d 58 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 62% -10.0%
all 58 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 62% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 62% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 5% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 5% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day152.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$23 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$27 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $29 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $29 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.84 · official $25.57 · 195 history records