Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
94 0x94d4…d869 sports 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$5,168 (+11%) realized +$5,537 · open −$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%192W / 120L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$1,083est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$4,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$252
14 days+$832
30 days+$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$4,648
other 29% −$117
crypto 3% −$498
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.0% -16.8% 28% 26% -4.6%
≤30d 143 +53.2% +38.6% 62% 57% -6.4%
≤90d 312 +74.0% +57.4% 62% 57% -3.2%
all 312 +74.0% +57.4% 62% 57% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.4% 57% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here +42.4% 49% -12.5%
15% +28.6% 45% -20.9%
20% +16.0% 38% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +93% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$86 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,782
Realized+$5,537
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses192 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1,083
Open positions14
Markets (closed)312 / 327
History coverage68d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3,660 $3,390 −$270 (-7%)
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic Adelina Lachinova 63¢ 50¢ $504 $401 −$103 (-20%)
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 96¢ $372 $395 +$23 (+6%)
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre Seydina Andre 55¢ 52¢ $391 $375 −$17 (-4%)
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska Barbara Straszewska 8¢ 7¢ $147 $129 −$18 (-12%)
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 36¢ 39¢ $39 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-17? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $29 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ 59¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+64%)
Will Hurricanes win? Yes 10¢ 60¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+500%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club ABB end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+405%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 9¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $262 +$62 +24%
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Jun 17 $941 +$182 +19%
Set Handicap: Vaissaud (-1.5) vs Kunz (+1.5) Jun 17 $310 −$306 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $28 +$56 +201%
ITF Klosters: Kai Wehnelt vs Gian Gruenig Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 16 $176 +$18 +10%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $325 +$213 +66%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $4 +$21 +577%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$92 +549%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$91 +510%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$58 +510%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$47 +216%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$198 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $48 +$152 +316%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $31 −$3 -11%
Cattolica: Maks Kasnikowski vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Oeiras 4: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-05-22? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sale Sharks win? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-03? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Rie Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Stormers win? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska BUY Barbara Straszewska 8¢ $4 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska BUY Barbara Straszewska 8¢ $147 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $92 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $2 1h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre BUY Seydina Andre 55¢ $397 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $2 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $2 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $30 1h
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Alana Subasic BUY Adelina Lachinova 63¢ $381 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $204 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $2 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 99¢ $324 20h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz SELL Dune Vaissaud 79¢ $157 21h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz SELL Dune Vaissaud 79¢ $47 21h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz SELL Dune Vaissaud 79¢ $918 21h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 54¢ $124 22h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 69¢ $141 22h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 67¢ $677 23h
Set Handicap: Vaissaud (-1.5) vs Kunz (+1.5) BUY Vaissaud 49¢ $310 23h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 44¢ $3 38h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann SELL Matilde Jorge 44¢ $84 45h
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
ITF Klosters: Kai Wehnelt vs Gian Gruenig BUY Gian Gruenig 20¢ $2 2d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic SELL Nadja Mladenovic 39¢ $194 2d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic BUY Nadja Mladenovic 34¢ $176 2d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata SELL Ryo Tabata 32¢ $538 2d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 22¢ $6 2d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 19¢ $135 2d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 18¢ $184 2d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,781.82 · official $4,981.82 · 1773 history records