Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d6…6492 crypto 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+2%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%172W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$657
7 days−$890
14 days−$163
30 days−$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$406
sports 3% −$30
other 1% +$51
world 1% +$8
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -7.0% -15.9% 46% 46% -30.5%
≤30d 224 -6.8% -15.7% 46% 46% -17.4%
≤90d 267 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 48% -14.2%
all 330 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 47% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 47% -13.7%
10% -17.9% 43% -21.9%
15% -25.8% 42% -29.5%
20% -33.1% 39% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses172 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage114d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$210 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$105 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $111 +$114 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$111 +85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 +$51 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$49 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1520 history records