Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94d9…51c5 sports 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,382 (-5%) realized −$4,381 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%133W / 79L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$338
14 days+$417
30 days+$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5,749
other 2% +$236
crypto 0% −$101
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 48% +8.7%
≤30d 33 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 48% +8.5%
≤90d 47 -9.9% -18.4% 53% 49% -1.2%
all 212 -8.4% -17.1% 63% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -15.3%
10% -25.1% 28% -23.4%
15% -32.3% 18% -30.8%
20% -38.9% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$160 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$4,381
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses133 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)212 / 215
History coverage141d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 +$63 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$33 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$59 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$30 +194%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$125 +123%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$35 -57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$20 +39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 +$151 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$105 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $86 +$117 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $73 −$66 -91%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $46 +$27 +59%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $100 −$53 -53%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 12 $183 +$18 +10%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 10 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 23 $20 +$5 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $132 +$38 +29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$5 +47%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $200 +$30 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $2 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $466 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $67 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $31 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $45 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.15 · official $114.15 (match) · 511 history records