Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94da…b902 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -28.9% -35.7% 39% 37% -37.6%
≤30d 67 -28.9% -35.7% 39% 37% -37.6%
≤90d 67 -28.9% -35.7% 39% 37% -37.6%
all 67 -28.9% -35.7% 39% 37% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 37% -37.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 34% -43.6%
15% -47.4% 30% -49.0%
20% -52.6% 21% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$16 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$15 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $32 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records