Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94da…e9ef sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$803 (+21%) realized +$806 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$1,060
14 days+$981
30 days+$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,036
sports 40% −$227
politics 1% +$1
world 1% −$13
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +75.6% +58.9% 100% 100% +52.0%
≤30d 28 -65.2% -68.5% 21% 21% +10.4%
≤90d 30 -55.4% -59.6% 27% 27% +10.8%
all 74 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% +11.5%
10% -20.8% 54% +0.8%
15% -28.5% 46% -8.9%
20% -35.5% 35% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$806
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage576d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $452 $449 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $172 +$126 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $796 +$347 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $240 +$137 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $350 +$450 +129%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $279 +$121 +44%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Reds Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Kraken Jun 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Temple Owls Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Rockies vs. Reds Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
White Sox vs. Tigers Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Ducks vs. Penguins Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Kings vs. Sharks Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Mariners vs. Rangers Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 02 $18 +$5 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox May 12 $7 +$6 +76%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 20 $9 +$8 +90%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $41 +$51 +123%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 11 $33 +$30 +89%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Mar 10 $33 +$15 +47%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 14 $41 +$14 +35%
Predators vs. Capitals Feb 12 $37 +$23 +64%
Canucks vs. Maple Leafs Jan 26 $35 +$22 +64%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $88 −$44 -50%
Magic vs. 76ers Dec 06 $19 +$17 +85%
Ducks vs. Red Wings Nov 20 $22 +$17 +75%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Nov 03 $25 +$13 +54%
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-19? Oct 27 $12 +$6 +49%
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Oct 19 $18 +$5 +28%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 17 $11 +$9 +75%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 26 $19 +$11 +59%
Blue Jays vs. Rockies Aug 18 $11 +$5 +43%
Brewers vs. Nationals Aug 06 $8 +$5 +70%
Dodgers vs. Giants Jul 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Rays vs. Royals Jun 28 $8 +$7 +82%
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $453 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $172 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $796 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $240 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $350 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $202 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $279 8d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $18 39d
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $7 61d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 52¢ $9 70d
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 59¢ $12 79d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 52¢ $36 83d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY MOUZ 74¢ $58 93d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 45¢ $41 100d
Suns vs. Bucks BUY Suns 53¢ $33 101d
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? BUY No 68¢ $33 114d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 126d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 74¢ $41 128d
Predators vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 61¢ $37 135d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Magic 35¢ $31 145d
Canucks vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 61¢ $35 160d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $44 160d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $88 162d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 44¢ $37 185d
Ducks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 54¢ $16 193d
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Temple Owls BUY Temple Owls 55¢ $18 195d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 54¢ $19 207d
Kings vs. Sharks BUY Kings 61¢ $25 211d
Ducks vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 57¢ $22 219d
Blackhawks vs. Kraken BUY Blackhawks 43¢ $24 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.94 · official $448.94 (match) · 150 history records