Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94dc…274c sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-8%) realized −$81 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate82%18W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$63
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$96
other 15% −$1
world 9% +$9
tech 3% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +12.9% +2.2% 75% 75% -0.1%
≤90d 15 -3.9% -13.1% 73% 40% -20.4%
all 22 -1.5% -10.9% 82% 32% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 32% -18.4%
10% -19.4% 18% -26.2%
15% -27.2% 18% -33.4%
20% -34.4% 9% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$66 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses18 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage170d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $82 +$63 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $129 +$51 +40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $111 −$110 -99%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 19 $117 +$42 +36%
Thunder vs. Suns May 16 $24 $0 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $116 −$115 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le May 07 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 29 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $13 $0 +1%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? Apr 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 11? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Apr 29 $22 $0 +1%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $26 +$3 +11%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $23 +$13 +54%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $7 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Amazon reach $320 in January? Feb 03 $18 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $17 +$4 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 10 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 56¢ $82 10d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Solary 71¢ $129 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 66¢ $111 22d
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta BUY Alba Berlin 73¢ $117 30d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 71¢ $116 37d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $39 42d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 50¢ $24 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 64¢ $23 54d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 62d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $9 84d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 93d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 99d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 106d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $11 112d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $22 128d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 141d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 145d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 145d
Will Amazon reach $320 in January? BUY No 99¢ $18 151d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 151d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $25 159d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.58 · official $98.58 (match) · 42 history records