Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
94 0x94dc…cca8 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 251d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$1
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 5 -3.1% -12.4% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage251d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.54 · official $418.55 (match) · 16 history records