Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x94df…2dce other 289 markets active 5d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,568 (+1%) realized +$4,086 · open −$2,518
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%163W / 106L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$9,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$297
14 days−$224
30 days−$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$653
world 10% −$1,727
sports 8% −$3,252
crypto 7% +$6,393
finance 4% −$2,999
culture 4% +$2,448
politics 1% +$593
tech 1% +$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -29.4%
≤30d 32 +90.8% +72.7% 62% 56% -14.8%
≤90d 199 +20.0% +8.6% 57% 40% -12.5%
all 269 +15.3% +4.4% 61% 40% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 40% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 22% -16.9%
15% -14.8% 14% -25.0%
20% -23.1% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,081) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$355 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$9,037
Realized+$4,086
Unrealized−$2,518
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses163 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions20
Markets (closed)269 / 289
History coverage232d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,598 $1,938 +$339 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,948 $1,531 −$417 (-21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,161 $1,355 +$194 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,503 $1,216 −$287 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,646 $1,170 −$477 (-29%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,693 $1,107 −$586 (-35%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 16¢ $1,460 $287 −$1,174 (-80%)
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 82¢ 70¢ $246 $212 −$34 (-14%)
Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 39¢ $76 $47 −$29 (-38%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 80¢ 92¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+15%)
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 68¢ 23¢ $89 $30 −$59 (-66%)
MagicBlock FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 72¢ 76¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $6 $17 +$11 (+180%)
Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 92¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 42¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 11 $530 −$438 -83%
Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 11 $820 +$140 +17%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 04 $61 +$9 +16%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $3 +$64 +2235%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $669 +$510 +76%
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 03 $19 −$15 -82%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 03 $1,151 −$647 -56%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $772 +$540 +70%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 02 $305 +$166 +54%
Will Kim Jong-hoon win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 02 $16 +$2 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $996 +$203 +20%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $69 −$45 -64%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $360 +$138 +38%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $248 +$150 +60%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,870 +$1,010 +35%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 28 $646 +$391 +60%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $2 +$8 +488%
Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 28 $59 +$50 +85%
Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch? May 28 $105 +$15 +14%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $29 +$110 +376%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $3,493 −$2,688 -77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $922 −$601 -65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $835 −$328 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $294 −$84 -29%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 21 $829 −$237 -29%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 21 $1,548 +$49 +3%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 21 $485 +$46 +9%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $596 +$390 +66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 20 $46 −$46 -98%
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 20 $9 −$5 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $24 −$12 -49%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 19 $42 +$56 +133%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 16 $200 −$181 -90%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 15 $1,751 +$516 +30%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 14 $260 −$185 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,668 +$85 +5%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 12 $362 −$226 -62%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $1,868 +$1,360 +73%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 11 $652 −$48 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $245 −$82 -33%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 10 $244 −$237 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$249 +488%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 10 $2,308 −$2,251 -98%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 08 $1,753 +$491 +28%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $674 +$104 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $268 −$47 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 07 $1,565 +$111 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $660 +$30 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $1 5d
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $803 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $410 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $171 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $871 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $968 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $821 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $770 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $400 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $398 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $476 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $871 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $968 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $821 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $770 6d
Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 97¢ $96 6d
Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 98¢ $409 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes $0 12d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,037.18 · official $9,037.18 (match) · 2901 history records