Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e0…ee69 other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 21% −$15
culture 7% −$8
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$7
world 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage139d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $62 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $628 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $675 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $264 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $499 −$3 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $145 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $572 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $392 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $331 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 6h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 14h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $19 14h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $43 15h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 16h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 25h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 44h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 45h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 47h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.18 · official $61.18 (match) · 1428 history records