Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x94e1…ee6b other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$383 (+24%) realized +$383 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$360
sports 17% +$21
crypto 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.2% -4.0% 75% 50% +14.9%
≤30d 4 +6.2% -4.0% 75% 50% +14.9%
≤90d 6 +5.6% -4.5% 83% 33% -1.7%
all 21 +24.3% +12.5% 76% 43% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 43% +12.5%
10% +1.7% 33% +1.8%
15% -8.1% 29% -8.1%
20% -17.1% 14% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$66 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage242d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$18 +35%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +40%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 15 $620 +$44 +7%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $130 +$553 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 20 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 20 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 20 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 20 $8 +$1 +16%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 19 $269 −$260 -97%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -80%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $159 +$18 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $150 +$4 +3%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $1 $0 +10%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 55m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $68 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3d
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $449 74d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 59¢ $51 74d
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $81 74d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 74d
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records