Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94e3…49b7 sports 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$516 (-4%) realized −$491 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%214W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$30
14 days−$752
30 days−$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$360
sports 36% −$197
world 2% +$26
crypto 0% −$16
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -10.6%
≤30d 168 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 46% -22.1%
≤90d 345 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 53% -13.2%
all 345 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 53% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 53% -13.2%
10% -22.9% 32% -21.5%
15% -30.4% 18% -29.1%
20% -37.2% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$491
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses214 / 131
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)345 / 348
History coverage54d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-18? Yes 67¢ 34¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $71 −$19 -27%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$15 +45%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$39 +65%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 +$22 +78%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $106 +$72 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $94 +$55 +59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $69 +$31 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $104 +$59 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$11 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $91 +$126 +139%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$50 -63%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$13 -18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $77 −$13 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $80 +$35 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$13 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 +$19 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$22 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$12 -40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +50%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 +$10 +23%
CSD Colo-Colo to score first vs. CD Cobresal? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $33 +$13 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $35 +$12 +36%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $34 +$9 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $28 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $24 21m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $31 27m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $40 27m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 37m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $34 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 55m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $18 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $36 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $24 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $178 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $53 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $78 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $28 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.16 · official $25.17 (match) · 863 history records