trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $22,803 | $22,754 | −$49 (-0%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 28¢ | 30¢ | $19,500 | $20,272 | +$772 (+4%) |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 29¢ | 28¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? | No | 48¢ | 44¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $3,000 | $0 | −$3,000 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $6,070 | −$6,070 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 11? | Jun 12 | $6,300 | −$6,300 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on November 6? | Jun 12 | $2,923 | −$2,923 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 7? | Jun 12 | $3,698 | −$3,698 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 6? | Jun 12 | $2,927 | −$2,927 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 6? | Jun 12 | $4,996 | −$4,996 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 7? | Jun 12 | $5,000 | −$5,000 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13? | Jun 12 | $8,060 | −$8,060 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6? | Jun 12 | $5,700 | −$5,700 | -100% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $20,408 | −$20,408 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 12 | $19,936 | −$19,936 | -100% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $20,246 | +$13,652 | +67% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $3,061 | −$3,000 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -87.1% | -88.3% | 8% | 8% | -71.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -87.1% | -88.3% | 8% | 8% | -71.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -87.1% | -88.3% | 8% | 8% | -71.9% |
| all | 13 | -87.1% | -88.3% | 8% | 8% | -71.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -88.3% | 8% | -71.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -89.5% | 8% | -74.6% |
| 15% | -90.5% | 8% | -77.1% |
| 20% | -91.4% | 8% | -79.3% |