Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x94e4…c3e8
crypto · 638 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,478 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,233 · open −$167
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,819
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses419 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)613 / 638
History coverage14d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day215.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 25 History 613 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$263
14 days−$1,233
30 days−$1,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,706 $1,650 −$56 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,073 $979 −$93 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $507 $566 +$59 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $235 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $79 $94 +$15 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $52 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 60¢ 55¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$38 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $59 +$62 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$997
other 19% −$385
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$14
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 58m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 43% -26.3%
≤30d 613 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 46% -15.7%
≤90d 613 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 46% -15.7%
all 613 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 46% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover215.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 46% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 28% -23.7%
15% -28.6% 18% -31.1%
20% -35.6% 12% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,819.22 · official $3,820.19 (match) · 3500 history records