Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x94e6…58a4 crypto 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-12%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$2
other 17% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 14 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 29% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 29% -23.0%
10% -44.2% 29% -30.3%
15% -49.6% 29% -37.1%
20% -54.5% 21% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage117d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 18 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 18 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $9 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records