Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x94e6…630b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,121 (+157%) realized +$1,121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$773
14 days+$873
30 days+$873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$836
other 27% +$42
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +67.5% +51.6% 25% 25% +172.7%
≤30d 11 +68.5% +52.5% 27% 27% +103.1%
≤90d 11 +68.5% +52.5% 27% 27% +103.1%
all 11 +68.5% +52.5% 27% 27% +103.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.5% 27% +103.1%
10% +37.9% 27% +83.6%
15% +24.6% 27% +65.9%
20% +12.4% 18% +49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +124% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$30 · ×12.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $212 −$200 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $173 +$984 +570%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $171 −$27 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 08 $11 +$80 +752%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $105 +$51 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $212 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $151 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $144 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $171 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 66¢ $65 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $73 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? SELL No 86¢ $26 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 78¢ $26 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 0¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records