Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94eb…f9fe tech 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,933 (+5%) realized +$2,608 · open +$325
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,469per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 66% +$874
tech 21% −$1,808
other 9% +$1,175
crypto 4% +$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +409.8% +361.2% 60% 60% +47.8%
≤30d 16 +113.1% +92.8% 44% 38% +3.2%
≤90d 38 +29.0% +16.7% 29% 24% -12.1%
all 38 +29.0% +16.7% 29% 24% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.7% 24% -12.1%
10% +5.6% 24% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -4.6% 24% -28.2%
20% -14.0% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,460) neutral
Persistence
early -45% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
43.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,198 vs −$491 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized+$2,608
Unrealized+$325
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,469
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? Down 47¢ 100¢ $289 $615 +$325 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $3,228 +$2,733 +85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,460 +$2,104 +144%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,913 −$1,558 -81%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2,230 +$1,925 +86%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,197 +$481 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $998 −$978 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2,086 +$1,209 +58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $304 −$291 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $319 −$123 -38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,424 +$7 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $140 +$21 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,101 −$693 -63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,791 −$379 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1,401 −$580 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $149 −$39 -26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1,546 −$497 -32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $2,508 −$2,070 -82%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 11? May 11 $1,177 +$3,148 +268%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 11? May 11 $135 −$44 -33%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 on May 8? May 08 $973 +$834 +86%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $1,481 −$1,324 -89%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 8? May 08 $323 −$314 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 8? May 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $405 on May 8? May 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 6? May 06 $187 −$184 -98%
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 4? May 04 $291 −$284 -97%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $937 +$222 +24%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on May 4? May 04 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $375 on May 4? May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $4,881 −$2,870 -59%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on April 24? Apr 29 $551 −$432 -78%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on April 22? Apr 29 $29 −$20 -66%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 24? Apr 29 $610 −$303 -50%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 on April 24? Apr 24 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 22? Apr 22 $27 −$26 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $19,188 +$488 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $15 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 17¢ $19 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 18¢ $20 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 17¢ $19 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 18¢ $20 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 17¢ $19 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 18¢ $20 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 18¢ $19 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 19¢ $21 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 20¢ $20 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $15 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 12¢ $14 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $14 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $3 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $15 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $14 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 14¢ $16 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 15¢ $17 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 13¢ $15 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 14¢ $16 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 14¢ $16 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 15¢ $15 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 15¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.59 · official $614.59 (match) · 1801 history records