Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ed…1eaf crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$13
crypto 32% −$16
sports 22% −$1
other 3% −$7
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 57% +6.0%
≤30d 52 -21.7% -29.2% 37% 35% -18.7%
≤90d 52 -21.7% -29.2% 37% 35% -18.7%
all 52 -21.7% -29.2% 37% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 35% -18.7%
10% -35.9% 33% -26.5%
15% -42.1% 27% -33.6%
20% -47.8% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 65
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $205 $221 +$17 (+8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$14 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $5 −$4 -77%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 04 $7 −$4 -57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4 +$4 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$3 +69%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $9 +$8 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $19 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs The Last Resort (BO3) - Exort Series M May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 16 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $4 +$2 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 51¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND W BUY 16¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 55¢ $5 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $82 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 15¢ $2 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 8¢ $2 15h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $3 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 6¢ $2 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 18h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $4 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 7¢ $2 25h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 48¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.00 · official $258.39 · 152 history records