Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x94f0…7426 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$19
other 14% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.1% +14.1% 100% 50% +4.3%
≤30d 4 +26.1% +14.1% 100% 50% +4.3%
≤90d 4 +26.1% +14.1% 100% 50% +4.3%
all 4 +26.1% +14.1% 100% 50% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 50% +4.3%
10% +3.2% 25% -5.7%
15% -6.8% 25% -14.8%
20% -15.9% 25% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $100 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ReThink 100¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 90¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL Lilmix 99¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 55¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $23 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Enterprise Esports 100¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 99¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records