Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94f0…c746 crypto 720 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%688W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day130.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$23
other 1% +$5
sports 0% +$18
world 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 715 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 5% -8.8%
≤30d 715 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 715 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 5% -8.8%
all 715 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 5% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses688 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)715 / 720
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day130.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+233%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +236%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.57 · official $14.57 (match) · 1427 history records