Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94f0…7314 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-13%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$91
14 days−$314
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$12
crypto 42% −$13
sports 12% −$283
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.2% -47.7% 25% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 8 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 0% -24.9%
≤90d 8 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 0% -24.9%
all 8 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 0% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 0% -24.9%
10% -61.2% 0% -32.0%
15% -65.0% 0% -38.6%
20% -68.4% 0% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$52 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage12d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $540 $540 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $517 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$11 -69%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$14 -94%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $218 −$203 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $468 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.73 · official $539.73 (match) · 22 history records