Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x94f1…54a1 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$463 (+2%) realized +$895 · open −$432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$965per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$17,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$958
sports 30% −$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 56% +3.8%
≤30d 9 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 56% +3.8%
≤90d 9 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 56% +3.8%
all 9 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 56% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 56% +3.8%
10% -0.4% 56% -6.2%
15% ← realistic here -10.0% 56% -15.2%
20% -18.8% 56% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$769 vs −$705 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$17,626
Realized+$895
Unrealized−$432
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions17
Markets (closed)9 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$965
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3,520 $4,059 +$539 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3,422 $2,784 −$638 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3,024 $2,282 −$742 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,728 $2,056 +$328 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,488 $1,880 +$392 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,344 $1,064 −$280 (-21%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $780 $788 +$8 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $520 $565 +$45 (+9%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 26¢ $540 $530 −$10 (-2%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $321 $325 +$4 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 61¢ $305 $305 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $336 $264 −$72 (-21%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Czechia 60¢ 60¢ $229 $227 −$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $215 $218 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $162 $148 −$14 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $103 $114 +$11 (+10%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 51¢ $20 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,518 +$982 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $535 +$480 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $435 +$1,065 +245%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $420 +$580 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $215 16m
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 36¢ $327 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $309 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $552 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 60¢ $232 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $791 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $34 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $190 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $747 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $2 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $8 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $9 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $6 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $189 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $99 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $23 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $113 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $126 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $9 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $107 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $183 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $113 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 47h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $296 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $34 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,626.13 · official $17,626.13 (match) · 276 history records