Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94f2…3966 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$10
other 41% +$34
sports 6% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.2% +6.9% 78% 56% +6.0%
≤30d 9 +18.2% +6.9% 78% 56% +6.0%
≤90d 9 +18.2% +6.9% 78% 56% +6.0%
all 40 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 48% -4.2%
10% -25.0% 45% -13.3%
15% -32.2% 38% -21.7%
20% -38.9% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage99d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $34 +$9 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $55 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $27 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$13 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 18 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 18 $6 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 18 $19 +$17 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 18 $13 +$20 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 18 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 17 $35 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 17 $9 +$16 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 17 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 17 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 21m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 23m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 95¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 75¢ $34 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $27 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 51¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.60 · official $41.60 (match) · 89 history records