Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x94f2…2945 crypto 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-4%) realized −$101 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%150W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 47% -13.3%
≤30d 227 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 227 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 47% -13.3%
all 233 +6.1% -4.0% 64% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 46% -15.2%
10% -13.2% 34% -23.3%
15% -21.6% 26% -30.7%
20% -29.3% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses150 / 83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)233 / 236
History coverage108d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 61¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 52¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 52¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 49¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 48¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 49¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$22 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$21 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $28 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.81 · official $11.32 · 644 history records