Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94f4…d6e6 world 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-50%) realized −$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$3
sports 18% −$2
other 12% $0
crypto 17% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +56.0%
≤30d 2 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% -39.1%
≤90d 4 -56.9% -61.0% 25% 25% -69.2%
all 4 -56.9% -61.0% 25% 25% -69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.0% 25% -69.2%
10% -64.7% 25% -72.2%
15% -68.1% 25% -74.9%
20% -71.3% 25% -77.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage55d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 20d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 55d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.98 · official $6.98 (match) · 7 history records