Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94fa…bf93 other 56 markets active 16h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$11
politics 16% +$5
crypto 14% +$8
sports 10% +$4
finance 7% −$6
world 5% +$1
tech 4% +$3
culture 3% +$2
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤30d 12 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 42% -1.3%
≤90d 34 +2.5% -7.3% 74% 29% -8.7%
all 38 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 29% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 29% -8.3%
10% -15.6% 18% -17.1%
15% -23.8% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)38 / 56
History coverage109d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 94¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 +$3 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 26 $17 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $9 +$3 +34%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $7 +$3 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $16 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $24 −$12 -49%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 +$2 +22%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $31 +$9 +28%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 18h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $22 18h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $22 18h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $22 18h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $23 18h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $28 18h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 94¢ $28 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 94¢ $28 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $29 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 18h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 18h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 18h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $16 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $17 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $17 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $18 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $18 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $19 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 87¢ $8 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $8 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $9 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.25 · official $31.90 · 188 history records