Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94fe…a16a other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-10%) realized −$108 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$73
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$53
sports 29% −$27
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 45% -16.9%
≤30d 36 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 44% -19.5%
≤90d 36 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 44% -19.5%
all 36 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 44% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 44% -19.5%
10% -31.6% 44% -27.2%
15% -38.2% 44% -34.3%
20% -44.3% 31% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage12d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 60¢ 70¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$35 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$16 +54%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 +$22 +428%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -90%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $13 +$7 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$21 +69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$18 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 21h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 36¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 41h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $47 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 41h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $30 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 64¢ $13 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.25 · official $35.25 (match) · 61 history records