Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94ff…78d8 crypto 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 62L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$628
7 days+$628
14 days+$628
30 days+$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$647
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+102.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +496.6% +439.7% 64% 32% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +496.6% +439.7% 64% 32% -9.5%
≤90d 22 +496.6% +439.7% 64% 32% -9.5%
all 106 +123.8% +102.5% 42% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +102.5% 14% -9.2%
10% +83.1% 14% -17.9%
15% +65.5% 13% -25.8%
20% +49.2% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +124% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +177% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×13.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.42 per $1 lost it wins $11.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage214d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $201 +$96 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $302 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $112 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $158 +$73 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $473 +$232 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $440 +$219 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $107 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $140 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $231 −$31 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 26 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 26 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 25 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Nov 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 25 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $41 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records