Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9500…730c crypto 152 markets active 4h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate89%131W / 17L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$16
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$56
other 0% −$4
world 0% −$4
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.7% -12.0% 65% 46% -8.3%
≤30d 55 +8.4% -1.9% 76% 35% -7.9%
≤90d 94 +5.0% -5.0% 85% 20% -8.5%
all 148 +3.4% -6.5% 89% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -9.2%
10% -15.4% 7% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 7% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses131 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 152
History coverage139d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $145 +$3 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $134 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $139 +$3 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $138 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $127 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $121 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 30h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $145 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $147 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $145 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.93 (match) · 294 history records