Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9502…c9c9 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$2
other 22% $0
tech 19% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.05 per $1 lost it wins $6.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage494d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $46 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 04 $50 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 Masters? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 09 $20 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 63d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $36 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 123d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 151d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $51 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $22 183d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $46 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $26 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 211d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 242d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 242d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $42 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $4 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $45 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $9 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 335d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $50 335d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.40 · official $63.40 (match) · 110 history records