Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9502…ba22 crypto 986 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,764 (-5%) realized −$1,741 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%500W / 484L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$881
7 days−$1,842
14 days−$2,158
30 days−$3,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,067
weather 2% −$13
sports 1% +$105
other 1% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 44% -23.3%
≤30d 836 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 48% -19.1%
≤90d 984 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 50% -14.4%
all 984 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 50% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 50% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 49% -22.6%
15% -29.1% 48% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 46% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$35 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,741
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses500 / 484
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)984 / 986
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 984 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 44¢ 14¢ $18 $5 −$12 (-69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $169 +$151 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $123 −$118 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $157 +$101 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$56 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$33 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $263 +$223 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $656 +$566 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$42 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$30 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $169 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $83 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $134 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.41 · official $20.41 · 3500 history records