Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9504…1e0d crypto 185 markets active 10d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-8%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%97W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$127
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$84
world 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 145 -30.2% -36.8% 51% 39% -24.3%
≤90d 145 -30.2% -36.8% 51% 39% -24.3%
all 185 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 42% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 42% -18.3%
10% -20.3% 24% -26.1%
15% -28.0% 17% -33.3%
20% -35.1% 14% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses97 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage109d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records