Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9505…5110 other 403 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$92 (+0%) realized +$91 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%369W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$11
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$30
politics 20% −$37
crypto 8% +$6
finance 1% +$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 89 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 382 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 382 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,951
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses369 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)382 / 403
History coverage81d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $337 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $222 $222 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $218 $219 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $131 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will BNB dip to $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 1-7? Jun 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $182 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $130 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 1-7? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $99 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $177 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $161 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $216 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 4h
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 96¢ $19 27h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 44h
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 46h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 46h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $222 3d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 3d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,951.08 · official $1,951.08 (match) · 1443 history records